With new vessels being constructed at a steady rate, new plans for modernization of existing ships and purchases of new vessels from abroad it seems that the Russian Navy is well on its way to completely bring its fleet to modern standards. With a more stable economy, Russia can now afford to rebuild and modernize its navy which had been neglected for two decades due to a lack of available funds.

Last week Kenyan troops, in a surprising move, entered Somalia. The apparent trigger was the death of the ill elderly woman that Somali bandits had kidnapped from a Kenyan resort earlier. The Kenyan push has already made substantial gains along the border. The Transitional Federal Government seems even more convinced than ever that Al Shabaab has been beaten while convincing victories still haven’t taken place. Recent terrorist attacks in both Somalia and Kenya show that the Al Shabaab still poses a threat. Some fear that the Kenyan incursion will bring more violence and suffering to Somalia, but it could just be what was needed to push the Al Shabaab out of its position.

Somalia has recently made the headlines all over the world. The attention and response to the famine in Somalia, as well as the improving situation in Mogadishu, has allowed the Somali government to strengthen ties with international organizations and other states. While the humanitarian situation has taken the forefront, and while some have called out victory after the withdrawal of Al Shabaab from Mogadishu, the conflict in Southern Somalia rages on and Al Shabaab is far from collapsing and giving up control of the areas it claims.

“AirSea” battle concepts are nothing new. Discussion of their inclusion in highly escalatory and expensive unreleased battle plans is. To get a good primer on the topic take a look at any history book that discusses the Battle of the Atlantic in the Second World War. You will be quickly immersed in the topic. US Navy and Air Force combatants worked together in the Atlantic to hunt down and defeat Nazi U-Boats enabling the allies to invade Normandy. Without the utilization of this concept, Nazi skippers may have kept allied soldiers off the shores of Europe for much longer.

The Falkland Islands, located only a couple hundred kilometers away from Argentina, are today still part of the British Overseas Territories. While the Falklands are still an important maritime base to control that traffic passing through the Drake Passage, this strategic role of the Falklands has diminished since the wide use of the Panama Canal which provides a much easier connection between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. There are still ships, however, that are unable to use the Panama Canal such as United States aircraft carriers which are too large for the locks of the canal. Today’s value of the Falklands is more related to economical interests than maritime interests. The recently discovered oil and gas deposits near the Islands could play an important part in satisfying the UK’s energy needs.

The Persian Gulf is home to some of the most important trade routes of western energy needs. This makes freedom of navigation of merchant shipping and especially oil tankers an important issue of importance to western navies, it has also been quoted often times as one of the reasons for the US involvement in the Iran-Iraq war during the 80’s. Access to the Persian Gulf is only possible through the Strait of Hormuz which is mostly dominated by the Iranian Navy, operating from the naval base of Bandar Abbas.

The last weeks have brought the Somali Transitional Federal Government into a new constitutional crisis. Disagreements over the elections of a new president or the extension of his term are close to paralyzing the government. While TFG forces have succeeded in gaining territory in Mogadishu and have killed wanted terrorist Fazul Abdullah Mohamed, they may in fact be encountering large failures in the rest of the country.

The South China Sea is an important area in the maritime world of today. Many important trade routes run through this sea. The most important trade routes are the ones that supply the economies of China, Japan and Taiwan of essential raw materials. Other trade routes in the area support the distribution and export of finished products to and from markets in the European Union, the Middle East and India. Apart from these trade routes the South China Sea also possesses important reserves of crude oil and gas that are especially important to China in relation to the sustainment of its economy in the future.

Since the last analysis produced by The Geopolitical and Conflict Report several new military offensives have taken place in Somalia. Al Shabaab has found itself contested in almost every region of southern Somalia, yet the offensives fail to convince. The manner in which they are being executed might set the government up for future losses. In the mean time the Transitional Federal Government has made certain moves that risk alienating them from their foreign partners in the UN, AU and EU. While the Shabaab forces seem to be withdrawing, they might actually not be on the losing side.

While China is putting the last touches on its first operational aircraft carrier and Russia is redeploying its naval forces, the strategic balance of the Pacific Ocean is shifting towards what could be seen as a negative situation for United States naval hegemony in the Pacific. These impending changes to the naval balance in the East Asia region are bound to have implications on the political stability and cooperation in the region.